(note TQC52) ; English: "After Day 16, what risks would Saudi Arabia face in attacking targets in Iran with chemical weapons?" (increasesCausally HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 (exists ?DESTROY (inputsDestroyed ?DESTROY HYP-ChemicalWeapon-13134070)) likelihood) (possesses SaudiArabia HYP-ChemicalWeapon-13134070) (=> (possesses ?AGT ?THING) (desires ?AGT (not (exists ?EVT (inputsDestroyed ?EVT ?THING))))) (increasesCausally HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 (exists ?RETALIATION (and (instance ?RETALIATION AttackOnTangible) (maleficiary ?RETALIATION SaudiArabia))) likelihood) (instance SaudiArabia Agent) (=> (instance ?AGT Agent) (desires ?AGT (not (exists ?ATTACK (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (maleficiary ?ATTACK ?AGT)))))) (agent HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 SaudiArabia) (increasesImmediatelyCausally HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 (failureForAgents HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 SaudiArabia) likelihood) (subrelation increasesImmediatelyCausally increasesCausally) (=> (agent ?ACT ?AGT) (desires ?AGT (not (failureForAgents ?ACT ?AGT)))) (increasesCausally HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 (exists ?MIL-OP (and (instance ?MIL-OP MilitaryOperation) (directingAgent ?MIL-OP OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?MIL-OP SaudiArabia))) likelihood) (desires SaudiArabia (not (exists ?MIL-OP (and (instance ?MIL-OP MilitaryOperation) (directingAgent ?MIL-OP OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?MIL-OP SaudiArabia))))) (increasesCausally HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 (exists ?SANCTION (and (instance ?SANCTION ImposingSanctions) (directingAgent ?SANCTION OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?SANCTION SaudiArabia))) likelihood) (desires SaudiArabia (not (exists (?SANCTION) (and (instance ?SANCTION ImposingSanctions) (directingAgent ?SANCTION OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?SANCTION SaudiArabia))))) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK MilitaryAttack) (deviceUsed ?ATTACK ?WEAPON)) (increasesCausally ?ATTACK (exists ?DESTROY (inputsDestroyed ?DESTROY ?WEAPON)) likelihood)) (instance HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 MilitaryAttack) (deviceUsed HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 HYP-ChemicalWeapon-13134070) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (maleficiary ?ATTACK ?AGT2) (instance ?AGT2 Agent) (agent ?ATTACK ?AGT1)) (increasesCausally ?ATTACK (exists ?RETALIATION (and (instance ?RETALIATION AttackOnTangible) (maleficiary ?RETALIATION ?AGT1))) likelihood)) (subclass MilitaryAttack AttackOnTangible) (agent HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 SaudiArabia) (instance Iran Agent) (maleficiary HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 Iran) (subrelation agent agent) (=> (and (instance ?AGREE CodeOfConduct) (instance ?AGREE InternationalAgreement) (enforcingAgent ?AGREE ?GROUP) (actionViolatesObligation ?ACT ?AGREE) (agent ?ACT ?GEOPOL) (instance ?GEOPOL GeopoliticalEntity)) (increasesCausally ?ACT (exists ?MIL-OP (and (instance ?MIL-OP MilitaryOperation) (directingAgent ?MIL-OP ?GROUP) (maleficiary ?MIL-OP ?GEOPOL))) likelihood)) (instance ChemicalWeaponsConvention CodeOfConduct) (instance ChemicalWeaponsConvention InternationalAgreement) (enforcingAgent ChemicalWeaponsConvention OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (actionViolatesObligation HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 ChemicalWeaponsConvention) (agent HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 SaudiArabia) (instance SaudiArabia GeopoliticalEntity) (=> (and (instance ?AGREE CodeOfConduct) (instance ?AGREE InternationalAgreement) (enforcingAgent ?AGREE ?GROUP) (actionViolatesObligation ?ACT ?AGREE) (agent ?ACT ?GEOPOL) (instance ?GEOPOL GeopoliticalEntity)) (increasesCausally ?ACT (exists ?SANCTION (and (instance ?SANCTION ImposingSanctions) (directingAgent ?SANCTION ?GROUP) (maleficiary ?SANCTION ?GEOPOL))) likelihood)) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (agent ?ATTACK ?AGT) (deviceUsed ?ATTACK ?DEVICE)) (possesses ?AGT ?DEVICE)) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (deviceUsed ?ATTACK ?WEAPON) (instance ?WEAPON ChemicalWeapon) (agent ?ATTACK ?ATTACKING-AGENT)) (increasesImmediatelyCausally ?ATTACK (failureForAgents ?ATTACK ?ATTACKING-AGENT) likelihood)) (instance HYP-ChemicalWeapon-13134070 ChemicalWeapon) (=> (and (instance ?GEOPOL GeopoliticalEntity) (obligatedAgent ?OBL ?GEOPOL) (enforcingAgent ?OBL ?ENFORCER)) (desires ?GEOPOL (not (exists ?MIL-OP (and (instance ?MIL-OP MilitaryOperation) (directingAgent ?MIL-OP ?ENFORCER) (maleficiary ?MIL-OP ?GEOPOL)))))) (=> (and (instance ?GEOPOL GeopoliticalEntity) (obligatedAgent ?OBL ?GEOPOL) (enforcingAgent ?OBL ?ENFORCER)) (desires ?GEOPOL (not (exists ?SANCTION (and (instance ?SANCTION ImposingSanctions) (directingAgent ?SANCTION ?ENFORCER) (maleficiary ?SANCTION ?GEOPOL)))))) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (agent ?ATTACK ?COUNTRY2) (instance ?COUNTRY2 Country) (eventOccursAt ?ATTACK ?AREA) (different ?COUNTRY1 ?COUNTRY2) (inRegion ?AREA ?COUNTRY1) (instance ?COUNTRY1 Country)) (maleficiary ?ATTACK ?COUNTRY1)) (instance Iran Country) (different SaudiArabia Iran) (inRegion HYP-SomethingExisting-42411240 Iran) (eventOccursAt HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 HYP-SomethingExisting-42411240) (instance SaudiArabia Country) (=> (and (instance ?ATTACK AttackOnTangible) (deviceUsed ?ATTACK ?CHEM) (instance ?CHEM ChemicalWeapon) (agent ?ATTACK ?COUNTRY) (obligatedAgent ChemicalWeaponsConvention ?COUNTRY)) (actionViolatesObligation ?ATTACK ChemicalWeaponsConvention)) (obligatedAgent ChemicalWeaponsConvention SaudiArabia) (instance HYP-ChemicalWeapon-65056192 ChemicalWeapon) (query (findall ?PROP (=> (and (agent ?ACT SaudiArabia) (instance ?ACT MilitaryAttack) (eventOccursAt ?ACT ?TARGET) (inRegion ?TARGET Iran) (deviceUsed ?ACT ?FORCE) (instance ?FORCE ChemicalWeapon) (startsAfterStartingOf ?ACT (DateInSituationFn CalendarDay 16 HPKBScenarioConflict))) (or (and (desires SaudiArabia ?PROP) (decreasesCausally ?ACT ?PROP likelihood)) (and (desires SaudiArabia (not ?PROP)) (increasesCausally ?ACT ?PROP likelihood)))))) (answer (list (exists ?DESTROY (inputsDestroyed ?DESTROY #$HYP-ChemicalWeapon-13134070)) )) (answer (list (exists ?RETALIATION (and (instance ?RETALIATION AttackOnTangible) (maleficiary ?RETALIATION SaudiArabia))) )) (answer (list (failureForAgents #$HYP-MilitaryAttack-64413153 SaudiArabia) )) (answer (list (exists ?MIL-OP (and (instance ?MIL-OP MilitaryOperation) (directingAgent ?MIL-OP OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?MIL-OP SaudiArabia))) )) (answer (list (exists ?SANCTION (and (instance ?SANCTION ImposingSanctions) (directingAgent ?SANCTION OrganizationForTheProhibitionOfChemicalWeapons) (maleficiary ?SANCTION SaudiArabia))) )) (end_of_file)